Corn enters H2 2026 at approximately $4.20/bushel, down 5% year-over-year, as large South American crops and steady US demand create a balanced market. The USDA projects 2026/27 US ending stocks at 1.4 billion bushels, a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.5% — adequate but not burdensome.
US planting progress reached 92% by mid-June, ahead of the five-year average, setting up potential record production at 15.8 billion bushels if yield trends hold. The USDA's preliminary look suggests 92-94 million harvested acres, with trend-line yields of 175-180 bu/acre.
Ethanol demand remains the swing factor. US ethanol production is forecast at 14.2 billion gallons for 2026, up 2% year-over-year, supported by RVO mandates and gasoline blending demand. However, EV adoption is gradually eroding the ethanol demand base — E15 penetration growth is slowing as EV market share approaches 10%.
China's corn imports are declining 10% to approximately 18 Mt as domestic production recovers and alternative feed grains (sorghum, barley) gain share. Brazil has emerged as the dominant export supplier, with 2026/27 exports projected at 45-50 Mt, surpassing US exports.
USDA price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $3.80-4.50/bu, with the range determined by US yield outcomes and Chinese import pace.
Corn buyers should secure H2 requirements at $3.90-4.30/bu through forward contracts. The large South American crop creates a price ceiling, but US yield risk warrants maintaining coverage. For ethanol plants, lock in basis contracts during harvest lows. Livestock feeders should consider substitute grains (sorghum, wheat) if corn premiums widen. Budget $4.00-4.80/bu for 2027.