CBOT corn futures held above $4.60 per bushel through late July, staying near a nine-week high, according to Trading Economics data on July 23. The rally is supported by a tighter USDA balance sheet and higher crude oil prices, which outweighed better-than-expected US crop conditions. The CFD-tracked benchmark settled at $4.63/bu, up 0.28% on the day, with December 2026 futures at $4.61/bu after the July 10 WASDE report, as reported by the Farm Forum.
The USDA July WASDE cut 2026/27 US corn ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion, well below the average trade estimate. 'New-crop 2026/27 ending stocks getting cut by 170 million bushels from the June report has corn prices pushing higher,' noted Agriculture.com. The cut stems from smaller beginning stocks (down 125 mb to 2.02 bb) and higher exports (increased 50 mb), partially offset by lower ethanol use.
Old-crop 2025/26 ending stocks were slashed 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion, also below expectations by 50 mb. The USDA achieved this by raising feed and residual use by 150 mb, as quarterly stocks reports showed corn stocks coming in below expectations. Ethanol use was lowered 25 mb to 5.55 bb based on observed grain crush and ethanol production data.
For 2026/27, the USDA left corn acreage unchanged at 95.3 million acres and yield at 183 bushels per acre. Total production is pegged at 16.0 billion bushels, the second-largest US corn crop on record, trailing only 2025. Feed and residual use is projected at 6.1 bb, ethanol at 5.6 bb, and exports at approximately 3.15 bb. The projected farm price of $4.40/bu is up from $4.15/bu in 2025/26.
Crop conditions remain solid despite recent extreme heat. The USDA rated 67% of US corn as good-to-excellent as of late July, down one point week-over-week but above market expectations of 66%. Forecasts for cooler temperatures and increased rainfall have improved the production outlook, limiting further weather premium despite the tighter balance sheet.
Export sales have been mixed. For the week ended July 9, old-crop US corn export sales totaled 315,000 MT, well below expectations of 500,000 to 1.1 MMT. New-crop sales reached 311,200 tons, near the low end of forecasts. Recent weeks have seen positive grain export news overall, contributing to firmer futures.
Higher crude oil prices and Middle East tensions provide additional support. Argentina's corn estimate was raised 2 million tons to 63.0 MMT. Brazil's corn output was left mostly unchanged. Global ending stocks came in below trade expectations, adding to the bullish tone.
The balance sheet is shifting from comfortable toward moderately tighter, but 1.79 bb still implies adequate cover if weather holds through August. December futures at $4.61/bu compares to $4.13/bu in 2025 and $4.07/bu in 2024 at the same point, signaling the market is pricing in tighter fundamentals.
The current environment argues for active basis management rather than aggressive fixed-price hedging. New-crop cash bids in the Upper Midwest are just over $4.00/bu, roughly 60 cents below the December futures, creating a wide basis that procurement teams can exploit with local storage strategies. With Dec futures at $4.61/bu and ending stocks tightening by 170 mb, a long hedge on a dip to the $4.40 area offers a reasonable risk-reward profile. The 67% G/E rating suggests no imminent supply crisis, but the stocks cut argues against waiting for a major break below $4.50. Consider layering coverage in thirds: one third at current levels ($4.60-4.65), one third if December dips to $4.40-4.45, and one third reserved for August when the next WASDE and crop tour data could trigger bigger moves. The wide basis variability across the Corn Belt means regional procurement should prioritize location-specific prices over flat price hedging. For importers outside the US, Argentine and Brazilian offers at a discount to US Gulf provide near-term alternatives.