Coking coal prices edge higher in mid-may as Australian supply tightness persists

Global coking coal prices registered a modest uptick in the second week of May as constrained supply from Australia's Queensland basin and steady demand from Chinese coke producers kept the market in balance. According to Kallanish data cited by IndexBox, the price for premium-grade hard coking coal on an FOB Australia basis stood at $240.20 per tonne as of May 15, 2026, up from $238.90 per tonne recorded on May 8. (FACT: IndexBox/Kallanish, May 2026) Since April 17, the FOB Australia price has advanced 1.2%, while the domestic Chinese EXW Anze price has gained a sharper 7.1% over the same period, buoyed by consistent trading and a weekly increase in coke prices. (FACT: GMK Center, May 2026)

The supply-side dynamics are clear: Queensland's mining sector, the world's largest source of premium metallurgical coal exports, has experienced extended operational disruptions due to severe weather events and mine incidents since early 2026. Premium low-volatile hard coking coal hit a year-to-date high of $252.80/t FOB on February 13 before easing, as force majeure declarations limited availability of the highest-grade products. (FACT: GMK Center, February 2026) S&P Global analysts note that the persistent weather and infrastructure constraints in Queensland have kept premium HCC supply structurally tight through the first half of 2026. (FACT: S&P Global Commodity Insights, 2026)

On the demand side, Chinese coke producers are contemplating another price increase for their products, supported by steady demand from steelmakers seeking to rebuild inventories. This bolsters coking coal producers' bargaining power. However, buyer activity in the seaborne market remains subdued — Australian coking coal exports to China in April were only 0.7 million tonnes, down 45% year-on-year — as Chinese steel mills prioritize domestic and overland supply from Mongolia and Russia. (FACT: GMK Center, April 2026) The IEA's Coal Mid-Year Update 2025 already flagged that Chinese coal imports would not rebound in 2026 given demand stagnation, abundant stocks, and strong domestic production. (FACT: IEA Coal Mid-Year Update, 2025)

BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, raised its 2026 coking coal price forecast to $190/t in January, up from a prior estimate of $180/t, citing sustained import demand from India and China. BMI projects China's coking coal production will decline by roughly 8% to 454 million tonnes in 2026, providing underlying support to seaborne prices, though the agency cautioned that upside is capped by strong land-based exports from Mongolia and Russia. (FACT: SteelOrbis/BMI, January 8, 2026) BHP Group CEO Mike Henry noted in a February media call that India is now BHP's largest market for metallurgical coal, calling it "a country that's on the move." (FACT: S&P Global, 2026)

Australian met coal exports rose 11% month-on-month in April to 12.5 million tonnes, but the annual trajectory remains mixed. India took 2.5 million tonnes (+2% m/m but -4.4% y/y), while Japan and South Korea maintained steady intake. The Australian government's December Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts exports rising from 147 million tonnes in FY2025 to 152 million tonnes in FY2026 and 160 million tonnes in FY2027 before declining toward 2030. (FACT: S&P Global/REQ, December 2025)