India is cementing its position as the world's fastest-growing seaborne coking coal importer, with Argus consulting services projecting inflows of approximately 81.6 million tonnes in 2026 and 86.5 million tonnes in 2027. (FACT: Argus Media, May 2026) The ramp-up is driven by capacity additions across major Indian steel producers shifting to blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) routes and firm domestic demand that saw the country's crude steel output reach 150.1 million tonnes over January-November 2025 — making India the world's second-largest steel producer. (FACT: Worldsteel/Argus, 2025) November alone saw output rise 12% year-on-year to 13.8 million tonnes. (FACT: Argus Media, 2025)
The structural story is compelling. EY-Parthenon, in collaboration with the Indian Steel Association, projects India's coking coal demand will rise from approximately 87 million tonnes in FY2025 to 135 million tonnes by 2030, driven by steel industry expansion under the National Steel Policy and the Viksit Bharat development agenda. (FACT: EY-Parthenon & ISA Report, September 2025) However, domestic reserves face severe quality challenges — high ash and sulfur content combined with limited beneficiation capacity mean India imports 85% to 90% of its coking coal requirements. (FACT: EY Insights, 2025)
India's steel secretary has indicated that coking coal imports could reach 160 million tonnes annually by 2030, compared with roughly 58 million tonnes currently. (FACT: SteelOrbis/BMI, January 2026) BMI notes that robust steel output growth alongside weakening domestic coking coal supply makes India the key driver of seaborne demand growth. The IECC warns that India's steel capacity expansion to 300 million tonnes by 2030-31 could lock in $1.2 trillion of coking coal imports over the long term. (FACT: Down To Earth/IECC, 2026)
The composition of India's import basket is shifting. Australia historically supplied over 72% of India's coking coal imports (FY2021), but India has aggressively diversified: the US share grew from 8% in 2021 to 15% by 2025, and a 2026 bilateral trade agreement further encourages this pivot. (FACT: Outlook Business, 2026) This diversification is partly a risk-management response to Australia's concentrated supply profile and partly driven by relative pricing. The anti-dumping policy on low-ash metallurgical coke from major suppliers is also expected to have a slightly positive effect on coking coal imports over the next six months. (FACT: Argus Media, 2026)
India's import growth is partially offsetting declining Chinese demand for seaborne coking coal. While China imported about 122 million tonnes of metallurgical coal in 2024 (+19% y/y), the IEA expects Chinese imports to fall in 2025-26 as domestic production rises. The 45% year-on-year drop in Australian coking coal shipments to China in April 2026 underscores this shift. (FACT: GMK Center, April 2026) S&P Global notes that Australia's export trajectory increasingly relies on India and Southeast Asian demand to counterbalance Chinese and European declines. (FACT: S&P Global, December 2025)
BMI raised its 2026 coking coal price forecast to $190/t, explicitly citing "sustained import demand from India and China." (FACT: SteelOrbis/BMI, January 2026) As Indian steel mills commission new capacity — particularly in the eastern states near ports — the marginal buyer of seaborne coking coal increasingly sets prices from the Indian subcontinent rather than from China.
Action: For suppliers: India's demand is price-inelastic due to the 85-90% import dependency and new blast furnace capacity already under construction. Long-term offtake agreements with Indian steel mills should be negotiated with price-escalation clauses tied to Platts HCC indices plus a quality premium for low-ash Australian PLV coal. Indian mills are increasingly blending multiple origins, so product flexibility matters.
Horizon: India's coking coal demand growth to 135 Mt by 2030 is effectively locked in by the 300 Mt steel capacity target. The US share of Indian imports will continue growing from 15% toward 20-25%, but premium Australian HCC will maintain a structural premium for high-productivity blast furnaces. Mozambique and Canadian supply will also gain share as Indian buyers seek origin diversification.
Trigger: Watch (1) India's weekly coking coal port stock levels at Paradip, Vizag, and Haldia — stocks below 10 million tonnes signal imminent restocking demand; (2) Indian steel production data — sustained above 12 million tonnes/month confirms the structural demand trajectory; (3) the India-Australia FOB CFR freight spread — rising above $18/t signals tightening dry bulk availability.