Australian iron ore shipments rebounded to 81.2 million tonnes in May, up 7% month-over-month as export operations recovered from cyclone-related disruptions in April. The recovery in supply has reinforced the balanced market conditions that have kept seaborne prices rangebound near $101/mt.
Rio Tinto reported May exports of 29.8 million tonnes from its Pilbara operations, up 5% from April. BHP's Western Australia Iron Ore operations shipped 27.5 million tonnes, up 8%, while Fortescue Metals Group shipped 18.2 million tonnes, up 9%. All three major producers are on track to meet their 2026 production guidance.
The robust export volumes reflect ongoing investments in port and rail capacity. Rio Tinto's Gudai-Darri mine expansion reached full capacity of 43 million tonnes per annum in Q2 2026. BHP's South Flank mine is now operating at its nameplate capacity, sustaining the company's production profile as older mines deplete.
Brazilian shipments from Vale were also stable at 32.5 million tonnes in May, up 2% year-over-year. The combined seaborne supply from Australia and Brazil — which accounts for approximately 85% of global seaborne iron ore — remains ample, with no structural supply constraints in the near term.
The supply recovery from Australia removes any near-term tightness risk. For procurement teams, this confirms the view that the iron ore market is adequately supplied through Q3 2026. No urgency to forward-buy above $100/mt. The structural question to watch is whether Chinese steel output will be constrained by policy (output cap) or demand (property), which would determine whether the market tips into surplus in H2 2026.