Arabica coffee enters H2 2026 at approximately $1.85/pound, down 8% year-over-year, as the International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts global production at 175 million 60-kg bags for 2026/27, up 3% from 2025.
Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at 52 million bags, an 'on-year' in the biennial cycle following 2025's 'off-year' at 46 million bags. Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo plantations are reporting good flowering conditions, though drought risk remains into H2.
Vietnam robustusta production is forecast at 28-30 million bags, recovering from 2025's drought-impacted 26 million bags. However, farmer renovation programs (replacing old trees with higher-yielding clones) are structurally reducing Vietnam's market share over time.
Global stocks sit at 35 million bags — the lowest level in five years — providing minimal buffer against supply shocks. The stocks-to-use ratio is approximately 20%, below the 25% comfort threshold.
ICO price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $1.70-2.10/lb for arabica.
Coffee buyers should secure H2 requirements at $1.75-1.95/lb through fixed contracts. The low stock environment creates upside risk despite the on-year cycle. For roasters, consider call options at $2.10/lb. Budget $1.80-2.30/lb for 2027 as the biennial cycle progresses.