Spot price level – June 2026 - ICE arabica futures around early June 2026: ~US¢270/lb ($2.70/lb), near the lowest since Nov 2024, down >20% YTD and ~23–31% y/y depending on reference date. - ICO Composite Indicator averaged 266.24 US¢/lb in April 2026, down 2.7% m/m; six‑month low of 262.1 US¢/lb on 6 Feb 2026 as improved Brazil supply and a stronger USD weighed on prices. - Robusta May‑26 London futures recently around $3,539/t (23 Apr 2026), reflecting still‑tight near‑term supply despite easing. Supply outlook 2025/26–2026/27 - World coffee production 2025/26 forecast at a record ~178.7–178
Spot price level – June 2026 - ICE arabica futures around early June 2026: ~US¢270/lb ($2.70/lb), near the lowest since Nov 2024, down >20% YTD and ~23–31% y/y depending on reference date. - ICO Composite Indicator averaged 266.24 US¢/lb in April 2026, down 2.7% m/m; six‑month low of 262.1 US¢/lb on 6 Feb 2026 as improved Brazil supply and a stronger USD weighed on prices.
- Robusta May‑26 London futures recently around $3,539/t (23 Apr 2026), reflecting still‑tight near‑term supply despite easing. Supply outlook 2025/26–2026/27 - World coffee production 2025/26 forecast at a record ~178.7–178.8m bags, up ~4.3m vs prior year, led by Vietnam/Indonesia and record Ethiopia; Brazil 2025/26 almost flat near 65m bags.
- USDA and country posts expect Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to be a record 70–72m+ bags, with arabica up ~24–28% y/y to near 47m+ bags on the positive biennial cycle and good weather. - Rabobank and other analysts see 2026/27 global output at ~180–188m bags, vs demand ~181m, implying a surplus of ~7–10m bags after several deficit years.
- Vietnam robusta output is recovering; USDA and ICO data show strong export growth in 2025/26 and early 2026 (e.g., Jan 2026 Vietnam exports +67% y/y; global Jan 2026 exports +13.7% y/y). - Record/near‑record forecasts from Brazil, Vietnam and others underpin a structural shift from multi‑year tightness to the first clear surplus in at least five years in 2026/27. Demand / consumption - Global consumption reached a record ~174m 60‑kg bags i
Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Coffee given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.