Bismuth has become one of the most dramatic stories in critical minerals. The metal, which traded at approximately $3.89/lb in January 2024, reached $67/kg (~$30/lb) by July 2026, a 465% increase from early 2024 levels according to Strategic Metals Invest data. The catalyst was China's February 4, 2025 export controls on bismuth metal, alloys, and bismuth germanate, imposed under the Ministry of Commerce's Announcement No. 10/2025.
The market response was unprecedented. Within six weeks of the announcement, bismuth prices surged from approximately $6/lb to nearly $35-40/lb, the highest in 17 years. Chinese exports plummeted from a monthly average of approximately 1,000 tonnes to just 458 tonnes in February 2025, creating an immediate supply vacuum for Western buyers. The US response was swift: in August 2025, the Defense Logistics Agency published Solicitation SP8000-25-R-0017 to purchase 5.16 million pounds of bismuth metal over five years.
Supply fundamentals explain why the price response has been so sharp. Global bismuth refinery production was approximately 16,000 tonnes in 2024, roughly flat versus 2023 according to USGS data. Silverado Policy Accelerator analysis confirms global refinery output remained flat from 2024 to 2025, indicating production patterns did not change substantially following the controls. Bismuth is primarily a by-product of lead, zinc, tin, and tungsten refining, making supply structurally inelastic to price in the short term.
China's dominance is overwhelming: approximately 90% of refined bismuth and 80% of mine output. The country's export controls are more stringent on metal and high-purity products than on oxides, creating a regulatory arbitrage where bismuth oxide trades at a lower implied metal equivalent than historical norms. In 2024, China exported approximately 1,185 tonnes of wrought bismuth (down 25% from 2023) but 8,499 tonnes of bismuth trioxide (up 32% from 2023), reflecting a shift toward exporting less controlled compounds.
Demand is diversified across structural growth sectors. Pharmaceuticals account for approximately 35% of consumption, primarily as bismuth subsalicylate. Metallurgical alloys and solder applications represent approximately 28%, with bismuth's non-toxicity making it the primary replacement for lead in plumbing, ammunition, and radiation shielding. The electronics sector is a growing demand source, with reports that AI data center construction could be hampered by shortages of bismuth-based solder for temperature-sensitive connections.
USGS data shows the US imported 67% of its bismuth from China between 2020 and 2023, with South Korea providing 23%. The US has not stockpiled bismuth at the government level, making the DoD tender a significant policy shift. The EU and US have both classified bismuth as a critical raw material, driving government investments in secure supply chains. Fortune Minerals' NICO project in Canada targets 4,500 t/yr of bismuth by 2030, leveraging cobalt-gold-bismuth co-production.
The market remains structurally tight. China's export controls remain in force into 2026 with no major liberalization reported. Alternative non-Chinese supply chains require years, not months, to develop. Silverado analysis emphasizes that global refinery output is flat, and bismuth metal availability outside China has fallen because of the controls, despite continued exports of less-controlled oxide products.
For the remainder of 2026, prices are expected to remain well above pre-2024 levels, though below the early-2025 peak. The market is estimated at $846 million in 2026, reflecting sustained high prices. Any normalization is conditional on new projects, policy shifts, or relaxation of Chinese controls, none of which appear imminent. The base case is continued elevated prices with volatility tied to Chinese policy announcements.
Bismuth procurement requires urgent supply chain reassessment. The combination of Chinese export controls, Pentagon stockpiling, inelastic by-product supply, and growing electronics demand means the market will remain structurally tight for years. Immediate actions: (1) secure term contracts with non-Chinese suppliers, including European re-exporters of bismuth oxide; (2) evaluate bismuth-free alternatives for solder applications where possible; (3) track the DoD stockpile tender as a demand signal. The oxide market offers a workaround to metal controls but comes with conversion cost and purity risks. For high-purity applications (5N+), the Western supply gap is even more acute and prices are substantially higher.