Zinc concentrate treatment charges are recovering from the record lows of 2024-2025 as new mine supply begins to reach the market. Spot TC cif China hit just $50-80/t in 2024-2025, the lowest levels since record-keeping began, reflecting a severe concentrate deficit that squeezed smelter margins globally.
The recovery is driven by new mine capacity. The Tala Hamza project in Algeria is scheduled to start production in 2026, and a new zinc circuit at Asmara in Eritrea is slated for late 2026-2027. These additions support further appreciation in spot TCs, which Fastmarkets expects to reach the $150-160/t range in 2026.
StoneX reports that Chinese annual RCs (regional treatment charges) were at record lows around $80/t in 2025. They expect these to rise toward approximately $160/t in 2026 as ore availability improves and new smelter capacity ramps, though the timeline depends on how quickly new mines reach full production.
The TC recovery is a mixed signal for refined zinc prices. Higher TCs incentivize smelter production, which could increase refined output and eventually weigh on LME prices. However, the transition period is complex: for TCs to normalize, exchange prices may need to be forced higher to justify smelter cuts that rebalance the concentrate market.
Global mine supply is on track to rebound in 2025-2026 after three years of declines, per StoneX. This concentrate loosening is the primary driver behind the expected global refined surplus of 2026-2027, even as LME inventories remain tight.
The TC recovery signals that the concentrate bottleneck is easing, which should translate to higher refined production and eventually lower zinc prices in late 2026 to 2027. If you can forward-contract at current levels near $3,400/t, you may benefit from price normalization. Monitor quarterly TC settlements as a leading indicator for refined zinc price direction.