LME zinc settled at $3,432 per metric tonne on June 26, barely changed from the prior session and significantly outperforming aluminum’s continued slide. Zinc is down 1.9% for the week — a loss, but mild compared to aluminum’s 8.0% and tin’s volatile swings. The relative stability reflects zinc’s fundamentally tighter supply picture: concentrate is scarce, smelters are constrained, and inventories are not building.

Spot zinc treatment charges remain below $50 per dry metric tonne, the lowest since 2018. The ILZSG estimates the global zinc concentrate market was in a deficit of roughly 150,000 tonnes in the first five months of 2026. Mine production growth has been minimal — new capacity in Peru and Australia has been offset by declines at aging mines in China, Canada, and Ireland. Smelters are competing aggressively for limited concentrate.

LME zinc inventories at roughly 154,000 tonnes are down slightly from a week ago and remain well below the 200,000+ tonne levels that preceded price weakness in 2024. Cancelled warrants represent roughly 8% of on-warrant stocks, suggesting modest further drawdowns ahead. The inventory picture contrasts sharply with aluminum, where stocks have risen 25,000 tonnes in a week.

SHFE zinc edged up 0.3% to ¥24,085 per tonne on June 26, reflecting steady Chinese demand from the galvanizing sector. Galvanized steel output in China was roughly flat year-over-year in May, with infrastructure-related galvanizing offsetting weakness in construction and automotive.

What this means for buyers

Zinc is the standout in the base metals complex this week — down less than 2% while aluminum is down 8%. The reason is structural tightness in concentrate, which won’t resolve quickly. Buyers should expect zinc to hold a floor around $3,350-3,400 even if macro selling continues. For Q3 contracting, locking in zinc at $3,400-3,450 is reasonable given the concentrate deficit. The risk of waiting for further downside is that a supply disruption — a mine strike, a smelter shutdown — could spike prices by $200-300 quickly, given the lack of inventory buffer.