Zinc treatment charges remain near historic lows at approximately $80/t, signaling acute concentrate scarcity that is squeezing smelter margins worldwide. The low TCs mean smelters compete aggressively for limited feed, constraining refined output despite adequate smelting capacity.
The concentrate tightness reflects mine supply that has consistently underperformed expectations. While global mine production is growing, driven by new projects in Africa, Peru, and Europe, flow-through to refined metal has been delayed. JP Morgan estimates 2026 mine supply growth is 5% below projections due to disruptions in Sweden, the US, and Peru.
China's regional concentrate TCs rose from record lows toward $160/t in early 2026 as ore availability improved, but more slowly than expected. The Kunlun smelter, expected to add 560,000 tonnes of annual capacity, has been slow to ramp up. Globally, the combination of low TCs and stagnant mine supply means the concentrate market remains tight through at least H1 2026, supporting refined prices.