Zinc concentrate markets are caught in a paradox. On a headline basis, mine supply is growing. The ILZSG projects a 2.4% increase in global zinc mine output to approximately 12.8 Mt in 2026, driven by a slate of restarts and greenfield developments. Almina-Minas Aljustrel in Portugal is ramping back up, Bunker Hill in Idaho has resumed operations after its acquisition by ScoZinc, and Xinjiang Huoshaoyun in China is contributing new tonnage. Greenfield projects at Tala Hamza in Algeria and Ozernoye in Russia — the latter now shipping concentrate to China — are adding further supply to the global pipeline. (FACT: ILZSG, Reuters, May 2026)
Yet the concentrate market remains extraordinarily tight. Treatment charges — the fee miners pay smelters to process concentrate into refined metal — tell the real story. The 2026 annual benchmark settled at just $85/t, barely above the all-time low of $80/t set in 2025, and Chinese spot TCs are trading in the $40–60/t range. The disconnect between rising headline mine output and persistent processing tightness reveals a fractured supply chain. Disruptions in Iran and Australia have curtailed concentrate flows from key regional hubs, while Zazzinc's operational issues in Kazakhstan have removed a significant source of high-grade material from seaborne markets. (FACT: Fastmarkets, SMM, May 2026)
The Ozernoye mine in Russia, which was expected to alleviate concentrate tightness, has shipped material to China but at volumes well below initial projections, constrained by logistics and quality positioning. Meanwhile, Chinese smelters are running at elevated utilization rates to maximize refined output, but the TC/RC squeeze means they are effectively processing concentrate at negative margins before by-product credits. The net result is a market where concentrate, not refined metal, is the binding constraint — preventing the surplus that mine supply growth would logically suggest. (FACT: Reuters, Fastmarkets, May 2026)
The concentrate crunch is the structural bottleneck holding zinc supply in check. Even as mines restart and greenfield projects come online, disruptions in Iran, Australia, and Kazakhstan ensure that the pipeline from mine to refinery remains under pressure. For procurement teams, the persistence of low TC/RCs means smelters have little incentive to maximize output — any operational issue becomes an excuse to cut runs. This creates latent upside risk in refined zinc pricing. Monitor concentrate availability as a leading indicator: if treatment charges remain at crisis levels through H2, refined zinc premiums look set to rise further.