China imported 1.5544 million tonnes of zinc concentrate in physical content during the first quarter of 2026, according to China customs data compiled by SMM. That represents a 27.64% year-on-year increase and a record pace for Q1 concentrate purchases. In March alone, imports reached 545,600 tonnes, up 31.8% month-on-month and 51.78% year-on-year. (FACT: SMM, China customs data, April 20, 2026)
The top three suppliers in March were Peru at 115,800 tonnes (21.2% share), Australia at 87,000 tonnes (16%), and South Africa at 48,900 tonnes (9%). These are the same concentrate flows that historically supplied Western smelters — and they are increasingly being redirected to China. (FACT: SMM, China customs data, March 2026)
The import surge is driven by Chinese smelter capacity expansion. In 2025, China added 430,000 tonnes of new refining capacity, with plants like Jiyuan Wanyang and Xinjiang Huoshaoyun ramping up. Global zinc concentrate production grew by over 600,000 tonnes in metal content in 2025, with overseas mines contributing 550,000 tonnes of that growth — but nearly all of that additional concentrate flowed to Chinese smelters, who could pay higher prices than their cash-strapped Western counterparts. (FACT: SMM Antaike, metal.com, December 2025)
The result is a two-tier concentrate market. Treatment charges for imported concentrate into China fell to $37.50 per dry metric tonne as of early January 2026, while domestic Chinese TCs were slightly higher at approximately 1,500 yuan per metal-tonne (about $205/t). A Fastmarkets tender for Antamina units was reported concluded at $(7) per tonne for Q1 2026 shipment — dipping into negative territory. Standard clean units from Australia's Dugald River mine closed at $20-30 per tonne in the latest tender for February-March delivery. (FACT: SMM, Fastmarkets, January-February 2026)
Fastmarkets reported in February 2026 that Chinese zinc and lead smelters are increasingly reliant on by-product revenues — sulfuric acid, silver, and other precious metals — to offset the high cost of raw material procurement. A trader source in Shanghai told Fastmarkets that "imported zinc concentrates supply to China could be somewhat tight in 2026," yet Chinese smelters continue to outbid Western facilities for every available cargo. (FACT: Fastmarkets, February 12, 2026)
SMM projects that global zinc concentrate production will grow by approximately 300,000 tonnes in metal content in 2026, while China's domestic concentrate output will rise by 200,000 tonnes. But even this growth may not be enough: SMM warns that "demand growth is projected to be more significant, leading to a slightly tight global zinc concentrate market." The mine-to-smelter bottleneck that defined 2025 is set to persist. (FACT: SMM analysis, metal.com, December 2025)
The implications for Western smelters are dire. With imported concentrate TCs below $40/dmt and the annual benchmark still unsettled, Western smelters — already paying higher energy costs — cannot match Chinese buying power. Every tonne of concentrate that lands in China is a tonne that does not feed a Western smelter. This is the structural mechanism behind the Western smelter attrition that has flipped the ILZSG balance from a 271,000-tonne surplus to a 19,000-tonne deficit. (FACT: ILZSG, SMM, Fastmarkets, 2025-2026)
The battle for zinc concentrate is being won by China, and that means Western refined zinc output will continue to shrink. If you are a Western buyer, you cannot rely on Western smelters for your supply. The concentrate data tells you why: China's import binge is structural, driven by new capacity that will operate for decades. Plan for a world where Western smelter output continues to decline and Chinese refined zinc — with its 6-8 week shipping time — becomes your primary source. The only question is at what premium. Watch imported TC levels: if they fall below $30/dmt, expect another wave of Western smelter closures. That is your signal to accelerate supply diversification.