US hot-rolled coil steel prices are trading at $1,095-1,125 per short ton in late June 2026, up 12.7% in Q1 2026 and roughly 19% year-over-year. Nucor lifted its spot HRC price by $10 to $1,125/st as of June 15, 2026, with California Steel Industries following at $1,175/st.
The primary driver is the Section 232 tariff on steel imports, raised from 25% to 50% in June 2025 and still in effect. The tariffs materially restrict offshore supply and keep domestic prices at a premium over landed imports.
Demand is supported by construction spending at $2.19 trillion annualized, reshoring manufacturing initiatives, housing starts, automotive production, and data center construction that has tripled in three years. The Steel Demand Index remains in elevated territory.
Supply discipline from domestic mills has been a key factor. Mills maintained production discipline after winter maintenance outages, with capacity constraints at electric arc furnace and integrated mill operations tightening available supply.
European HRC is steady at 700-720 EUR/t. CBAM and a new safeguard measure from July 2026 are expected to cut tariff-free import volumes by half, from 33 Mt to 18 Mt, doubling the out-of-quota duty from 25% to 50%.
Chinese HRC exports continue to exert downward pressure on global prices. FOB Shanghai SAE1006 HRC is at approximately $505/mt, reflecting China's surplus capacity strategy.
A poll of 444 US steel professionals found nearly two-thirds expected higher prices by end-Q2 2026, consistent with realized trend. The medium-term outlook projects 4.5% CAGR for HRC demand.
The key procurement risk is political: any change to Section 232 tariffs post-elections would unwind the price support, potentially dropping US HRC by 15-25%.
US HRC is structurally supported by 50% Section 232 tariffs, disciplined mill production, and strong reshoring-driven demand through year-end. Recommended: extend coverage through Q4 2026 at current levels ($1,050-1,150/st). For EU buyers, CBAM and July safeguard measures will tighten import availability, front-load H2 procurement. For Asian buyers, Chinese export pricing around $505/mt FOB offers the best value but carries trade policy risk.