The tungsten market is experiencing what analysts are calling a supercycle, and the data supports the label. Ammonium paratungstate, the benchmark tungsten product, broke through $450/MTU in early 2026 after trading at $415/MTU in early 2025 and just $312/MTU in 2023. Tungsten powder prices climbed to approximately $55,000/ton, representing a more than 500% increase from 2024 lows. Industry analysts describe the phenomenon as rising easily, falling hardly, because the supply gap has become structural.
Expert Market Research data shows the trajectory clearly. The global average tungsten price rose from $18.38/kg in Q1 2025 to $28.45/kg in Q1 2026, with a 2026 forecast range of $29-35/kg. North America recorded the steepest regional gain, climbing from $19.35/kg to $34.17/kg over the same period, a 76.6% year-over-year increase. European tungsten averaged $21.49/kg in Q1 2026. The Q2 2026 trajectory at $35.14/kg suggests continued upward pressure, though the rate of quarterly appreciation is moderating.
China's export control regime is the primary structural driver. On February 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs implemented a one-item, one-certificate export licensing system for 25 tungsten products, sharply reducing export volumes. Then three consecutive years of mining quota reductions followed, with the 2025 first-batch quota of 58,000 metric tons representing a 6.45% cut from 2024. The January 2026 publication of the 2026 Catalogue of Dual-Use Items tightened controls further, transforming Beijing's tungsten dominance into a geopolitical lever.
The domestic Chinese price data illustrates the scale of the squeeze. As of mid-January 2026, domestic prices for 65% wolframite and scheelite concentrates exceeded RMB 500,000 per ton, about $72,000/ton, a 216% year-over-year increase. December 2025 was the most dramatic month for tungsten raw materials: ammonium paratungstate jumped from $70.68/kg to $97.3/kg, a 37.6% gain in one month. Tungsten carbide powder rose from $113.1/kg to $150.2/kg, up 32.8%.
Supply-demand fundamentals confirm the price action. Global tungsten production was approximately 85,000 metric tons in 2025, with China contributing 67,000 metric tons or 78.82% of global output. Global reserves stand at about 4.7 million metric tons, with China holding 2.5 million metric tons, 53.19% of the total. Demand is driven by defense applications, where tungsten is used in penetrators, armor, and kinetic weapons, and is price-inelastic. Cemented carbides for cutting tools, precision tooling, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment add industrial demand. The US strategic reserve procurement program added significant incremental demand in North America.
Non-Chinese supply is slowly emerging but remains insufficient to rebalance the market near-term. South Korea's Almonty Sangdong mine could deliver up to 7% of global supply upon full ramp-up in 2025-2026. European sources including Panasqueira in Portugal and Barruecopardo in Spain provide additional volumes. The US is considering $1.6 billion in support for a Kazakhstan mine. But these combined sources cover only 5-7% of global demand, and no large-scale substitute for tungsten exists. Recycling is not catching up with consumption.
The bull case for tungsten prices: Chinese export controls persist or tighten, defense demand remains structurally elevated with NATO and US rearmament programs, and alternative supply ramp-up remains slow. APT could push past $500/MTU. The bear case: a China relaxation of export controls or accelerated Sangdong ramp-up would bring prices back toward $400/MTU. The base case: APT holds $400-450/MTU as the new floor, with physical tungsten in the $29-35/kg range.
Tungsten requires a fundamental rethinking of procurement strategy. Long-term offtake contracts with non-Chinese producers Panasqueira, Sangdong, and Kazakhstan sources are essential to lock volumes and cap price risk. Multi-sourcing and geographic diversification should replace sole reliance on Chinese exporters. Monitor Chinese quota announcements and export licensing rules as primary forward indicators for supply shocks. Defense buyers should expect to pay a premium for non-Chinese material given US strategic reserve competition. For civilian industrial use, build inventory buffers large enough to bridge potential 60-90 day licensing delays. Chinese buyers are now outbidding US recyclers for domestic scrap, sending US tungsten scrap prices up 350% since May 2025, so competition for secondary material is intense.