The antimony market in July 2026 is a study in post-shock normalization, but normalization to a structurally higher baseline. Fastmarkets MB assessed MMTA standard grade II in-warehouse Rotterdam at $58,000-59,650/MT in May 2026, roughly 4 times the 2024 average of $12,000/MT. By mid-2026, European prices corrected to about $23,000/t, while China domestic was near $19,563/t, with Europe holding a roughly 44% premium over the China domestic price that reflects the enduring friction of Beijing's export licensing regime.
The control regime that triggered this transformation is well-documented. On August 14, 2024, China's Ministry of Commerce announced export licensing requirements for antimony ore, metal, oxides, and related technologies, effective September 15, 2024. Every shipment requires a license, end-user certification, and dual-use review, with processing windows of 60-90 days. In December 2024, China escalated to an outright ban on antimony exports to US military end-users. The result: Chinese antimony export volumes to global markets dropped approximately 97% in the immediate aftermath, according to industry reporting from the Minor Metals Trade Association.
Supply response to the price signals has been meaningful. Starting in summer 2025, refiners in Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar ramped up antimony trioxide production specifically to capture the premium available for non-Chinese supply. Several new smelters entered at peak 2025 prices, easing supply and contributing to the 2026 correction. This diversification represents the most significant structural shift in global antimony refining since the 1990s, though high-purity material production remains concentrated in China.
China's share of global antimony mine production has declined from approximately 100,000 metric tons in 2000 to about 40,000 metric tons in 2024, out of a worldwide total of 83,000 metric tons. But China's dominance in refining and processing remains significant, at roughly 48-50% of global output. This means even with increased mine production elsewhere, the refining bottleneck persists.
Demand is structurally supported by defense applications, antimony goes into more than 200 types of military munitions. European and US rearmament programs have kept defense demand firm through the correction. Civil and industrial demand from flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and photovoltaic glass, where sodium antimonate is used as a glass clarifier, provide baseline consumption. China's new PV installations reached 274.89 GW in January-November 2025, close to the full-year 2024 total of 277.17 GW, maintaining demand for antimony in solar glass manufacturing.
The bull case for antimony: any additional MOFCOM tightening or disruption at a non-Chinese producer could push spot back toward the $50,000/t+ level. The bear case: a modest licensing relaxation could compress prices toward $35,000/t, but the structural floor remains well above the 2024 average. The base case: antimony holds in the $20,000-35,000/t range through H2 2026 depending on region and purity.
Plan for structurally higher prices than pre-2024. Budget for $20,000-35,000/t ranges depending on region and purity. US-linked defense buyers face a de facto Chinese embargo, secure non-Chinese supply chains. EU buyers can still source from China under license but must factor 60-90 day licensing delays, possible denials, and higher premiums. Build multi-year offtake agreements with Tajikistan, Myanmar, and Southeast Asian smelters and recyclers. Use index-linked pricing referencing Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam or Argus assessments, with caps and floors where possible given the absence of LME futures for antimony. The current post-peak correction window is an opportunity to rebuild inventories at sub-peak prices.