While LME tin prices have corrected sharply in recent weeks, the physical market tells a different story. Chinese smelters — particularly in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, which together account for the vast majority of China's refined tin output — are grappling with persistent concentrate shortages that are keeping operating rates at subdued levels.
According to SMM data, smelter operating rates in both provinces remain well below historical norms. The root cause is clear: the Wa State mining ban in Myanmar, enacted in August 2023, choked off the single largest source of imported concentrate for Chinese smelters. Myanmar typically supplied 40% or more of China's tin concentrate imports, and the sudden loss of that feedstock has not been fully replaced by alternative sources.
"Smelters are running on a hand-to-mouth basis," said an industry source in Yunnan. "Some are processing lower-grade stockpiles that were previously uneconomic. Others have cut shifts entirely. The concentrate market is extraordinarily tight."
Efforts to source alternative concentrate from Africa and South America have yielded only partial relief. The DRC's Bisie mine has entered phase 2 of its production resumption, adding some tonnage, but logistics constraints and grade variability have limited the impact. Australian and Brazilian concentrate shipments have increased marginally but remain insufficient to bridge the Myanmar gap.
The tightness in concentrate is reflected in the refined metal inventory picture. Combined LME and SHFE tin stocks rose from approximately 11,000 tonnes in October 2025 to over 19,000 tonnes by January 2026, driven by a combination of demand softening and destocking. However, SMM notes that the pace of stock accumulation has slowed markedly as smelter output remains constrained, and some analysts expect inventories to begin declining again if end-user demand stabilizes.
The concentrate market is likely to remain the most important factor in tin's medium-term trajectory. Even if Wa permits a restart, concentrate flows will take months to normalize. Until then, the physical supply chain remains structurally tight, providing a fundamental floor beneath the volatile price action in the paper market.