Indonesia's refined tin sector is staging a notable recovery in 2025, with export volumes surging more than 130% year-on-year in the first quarter as smelters ramp up production following a tumultuous 2024. The rebound comes after a corruption investigation at the Ministry of Trade and delays in mining license renewals triggered a 30.7% collapse in production last year, bringing output to approximately 49,900 tonnes — the lowest level in years.
The recovery is being driven by improved processing of both new mine output and stockpiled tin ore. Major smelters on Bangka-Belitung, the archipelago's tin belt, have resumed near-normal operations after securing essential permits. The ramp-up has been a welcome development for global buyers who spent much of 2024 scrambling for alternative supply amid the Indonesian shortfall.
Yet the recovery remains fragile. Indonesia's new RKAB (Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya) framework — which requires mining companies to secure annual work plan approvals rather than the previous multi-year system — introduces a recurring bottleneck. Each annual renewal cycle creates a window for regulatory delays, bureaucratic friction, and potential corruption vulnerabilities. Industry participants warn that the one-year system disincentivizes long-term investment in exploration and mine development.
While export volumes are improving, they remain well below pre-disruption norms. The country's tin output peaked near 80,000 tonnes annually in the mid-2010s, and most analysts see structural constraints — including declining ore grades and stricter environmental enforcement — limiting any return to those levels. For now, the recovery is real but incomplete, and the RKAB system ensures that policy risk will remain a persistent feature of Indonesia's tin supply story.