The tin market is in the grip of a severe correction. LME three-month tin has fallen from its January 2026 peak of approximately $56,800 per tonne to around $30,750 as of late May — a staggering decline of nearly 46%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the selloff has been even more pronounced, with SHFE tin down 4.39% in May alone to roughly 250,300 CNY per tonne.
The primary catalyst is the growing expectation that Myanmar's Wa State — which imposed a blanket ban on all mining activities in August 2023, removing an estimated 40% of global tin concentrate supply from the market — may soon permit a controlled restart. Unconfirmed market rumors circulated in late May that the Wa Central Committee had issued initial export licenses for stockpiled concentrates. While local authorities partially denied the reports, the damage to bullish positioning was already done.
"The market had priced in a prolonged Wa shutdown as its central thesis," said a tin trader in Singapore. "Every headline suggesting a restart — confirmed or not — forces a rapid repricing of that thesis. The volatility is extreme because the supply overhang from stockpiled material is potentially enormous."
The correction has been amplified by macro risk aversion and shifting fund positioning. Tin, as a smaller LME contract with concentrated supply, tends to overshoot on both sides. The sharp decline has triggered stop-loss selling from long-only commodity funds that had accumulated positions during the bull run, accelerating the downward momentum.
Critically, even if a Wa restart materializes, the ramp-up will be slow. The Wa authorities have indicated any restart would occur under a formal licensing framework, with phased approvals and environmental oversight. Industry sources estimate that even under an accelerated timeline, meaningful concentrate flows would not resume for at least six to nine months after a formal decision.
For now, the market remains hostage to headlines from the Wa capital, Pangkham. Until a definitive policy announcement is made, tin prices are likely to remain volatile, with every rumor triggering outsized price swings in both directions.