The ferrous scrap market entered July in a holding pattern. Platts and Fastmarkets assessments for Turkish bulk HMS 1/2 80:20 held near $384/t CFR in the second quarter, oscillating within a $378-390.5/t trading range. This follows a measured 5.3% year-to-date increase from January levels, driven by winter collection constraints in the US and Europe that tightened prompt industrial scrap supply. Those constraints have now eased with seasonal warmth, and deep-sea scrap availability has returned to normal levels.
US domestic scrap markets reflect the same sideways tone. The American scrap composite edged down to $374.5/t in early July, with Fastmarkets reporting no significant price movement across HMS #1, shredded, and busheling grades. Steel mill capability utilisation ran at 79.7% for the week ending July 11, down from 80.4% the prior week, as seasonal maintenance outages at several integrated and mini-mill operations curtailed scrap consumption. The American Iron and Steel Institute reports year-to-date raw steel output at 78.8% capability utilisation, up from 77.0% a year earlier, indicating that underlying steel demand remains modestly positive even as the summer lull temporarily depresses scrap buying.
The Turkish import market remains the global price anchor for deep-sea HMS. Turkish mills are operating at roughly 73.9% capacity utilisation, slightly down from 74.2% in July 2025. The Bureau of International Recycling and SteelOrbis report that Turkish mills are buying hand-to-mouth, covering only immediate requirements rather than building inventories, which limits upward price momentum even when scrap availability tightens. European scrap generation has been sufficient to meet Turkish demand without triggering a bidding war.
India stands apart in the global scrap market. Indian ferrous scrap imports surged 45% to 5.7 million tonnes through October of the current fiscal year, with stainless-specific scrap imports more than doubling to 1.06 million tonnes. The country remains roughly 75% import-dependent for stainless scrap, and projected FY26 scrap imports are expected to rise another 7%, signalling a structural shift toward scrap-based steel production as Indian mills expand electric arc furnace capacity. This growing demand from the subcontinent provides a price floor for deep-sea scrap that did not exist five years ago.
Supply-side factors are broadly neutral to slightly supportive for prices. Auto shredder scrap flows have normalised after winter disruptions, and industrial fabrication scrap generation is steady but unspectacular given the mixed global manufacturing backdrop. Post-consumer scrap collections are adequate. The wildcard is energy costs: European EAF mills face elevated and volatile electricity and natural gas prices, which affect scrap melting economics and can influence scrap demand when mills adjust melting rates to manage power costs.
Looking ahead to H2 2026, analyst consensus clusters around a $350-400/t CFR Turkey range for HMS 1/2 80:20. The mild upward bias comes from Indian demand growth and the potential for Chinese steel stimulus, but the ceiling is firmly capped by adequate global scrap supply and the absence of any major supply disruption. Near-term catalysts include: the seasonal ramp-up in construction scrap generation in Q3, which typically adds supply and softens prices; the North American hurricane season, which could disrupt Gulf Coast scrap logistics; and any shift in Turkish or Indian import policy that alters deep-sea trade flows.
Scrap buyers should not expect major price moves in either direction for the rest of the northern hemisphere summer. The market is balanced: mills are under no pressure to build inventories, and scrap yards are not holding material back expecting higher prices. If you are a mill sourcing scrap, there is no urgency to cover beyond 30 days. If you are a scrap seller, the Indian market offers the best pricing—divert containers from the European/Turkish route to Indian ports where demand is structurally growing. For steel buyers whose contracts include scrap-based pricing mechanisms, the flat scrap market means limited pass-through risk through Q3. But watch two variables: Indonesian nickel policy (which indirectly affects stainless scrap premiums) and US interest rate decisions (which affect construction scrap generation volumes). On extended-term scrap supply agreements, push for quarterly price resets tied to the Platts HMS 1/2 daily assessment rather than monthly resets, which capture more noise than signal in a range-bound market. And demand that your supplier run ferrite and copper checks on every load—contamination risk rises when scrap flows are balanced and margins are thin, because the incentive to push marginal material increases.