Ferrous scrap enters H2 2026 at approximately $380/tonne for HMS 1/2 80:20, up 5% year-over-year, as electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production grows 5% globally. Global scrap trade is forecast at 110 Mt in 2026, up 4% from 2025.
Turkey, the world's largest scrap importer, is forecast to import 8 Mt in H2 2026, down 5% year-over-year as domestic scrap generation increases. Turkish EAF mills source approximately 70% of charge from scrap, with the balance from DRI/HBI.
US scrap generation is forecast at 75 Mt in 2026, up 3%, with domestic EAF mills consuming 60 Mt and exports at 15-16 Mt. The US scrap-to-steel ratio is approaching 0.8, indicating mature recycling infrastructure.
Bangladesh and Vietnam are growing import markets, with combined demand at 6-7 Mt annually. These markets are price-sensitive and will substitute DRI when scrap premiums widen.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $350-420/t.
Scrap steel buyers should secure H2 requirements at $360-400/t through fixed contracts. EAF growth provides structural demand support. For mills, consider DRI/HBI substitution when scrap premiums exceed $50/t over DRI. Budget $370-450/t for 2027.