Rare earth elements enter H2 2026 in a dramatically tight market. Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide trades at $133/kg, up 151% year-to-date from $53/kg at January 2026 opening. Neodymium metal sits at $145.88/kg, praseodymium metal at $149.19/kg.
China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) sets the global supply tone through semi-annual production quotas. The H1 2026 quota was 135,000 tonnes REO, flat year-over-year, signaling Beijing's intent to manage supply tightly.
Myanmar's Wa State mines, which previously supplied 30% of China's heavy rare earths (dysprosium, terbium), have been offline since August 2023. Three-year permits were issued in March 2025 but shipments remain slow, keeping heavy rare earth prices elevated.
EV motor demand is the primary growth driver. Each EV requires 1-3 kg of neodymium in permanent magnets. With 18 million EVs forecast for 2026, magnet demand reaches 45,000 tonnes of NdPr equivalent, up 28% year-over-year.
Price projections for H2 2026: NdPr $100-140/kg (base), $130-170/kg (bull), $75-100/kg (bear).
Rare earth buyers must secure H2 requirements immediately at current $120-140/kg NdPr levels. The Chinese quota system and Myanmar supply disruption create significant upside risk. For magnet manufacturers, consider long-term contracts with Chinese producers and evaluate alternative magnet technologies (ferrite, iron-nitride) for cost-sensitive applications. Budget $120-160/kg for 2027.