The WPIC projects a fourth consecutive annual platinum deficit in 2026, with total supply rising just 2% to 7.379 Moz and mine production flat at 5.553 Moz. The cumulative deficit since 2023 approaches 3 Moz, pushing above-ground stocks to 2.613 Moz - just over four months of demand.
South Africa, accounting for 70-80% of global output, faces chronic challenges creating a 'structural output ceiling': aging shafts, power outages, high costs, and no new investment. Analysis warns of 'terminal decline' in South African platinum mining with further closures expected.
Demand has diversified beyond autocatalysts. Hydrogen economy applications generated ~500K oz of incremental PGM demand in 12-24 months. Auto demand remains resilient at 2.8-3.0 Moz/yr supported by hybrid vehicles requiring higher PGM loadings. Bank of America raised its 2026 price target to ~$2,450/oz.