Platinum demand in auto catalysts is caught between two opposing forces. The decline in ICE vehicle production is reducing the number of catalytic converters needed. But tighter emissions standards are increasing the PGM content per vehicle. The net effect is a modest 2% decline, substantially less than the 5-8% annual decline rates forecasted three years ago.
China's China 6b emissions standards, fully implemented in 2025, require significantly higher PGM loadings for both gasoline and diesel vehicles. The effect has been a 12% increase in platinum content per Chinese gasoline vehicle and 8% per diesel vehicle. Comparable Euro 7 standards take full effect in Europe in 2027, creating a further tailwind for PGM demand.
Diesel's terminal decline narrative has moderated. Diesel now accounts for 12% of European new car registrations, stable for three quarters. The stabilization reflects fleet demand and hybrid diesel models that maintain better fuel economy for long-distance commercial use. Heavy-duty diesel trucks remain fully reliant on diesel engines with platinum-containing catalysts.
The substitution effect between platinum and palladium also supports demand. With palladium trading at a premium of $200/oz over platinum, automakers continue to substitute palladium with platinum in gasoline catalyst formulations. WPIC estimates PGM substitution added 110,000 oz of platinum demand in H1 2026.
The auto catalyst story for platinum is better than expected. The China 6b and forthcoming Euro 7 standards maintain a floor under PGM demand even as EV adoption grows. For procurement, the structural demand base of 2.8 Moz from autos alone provides a floor. Use any dips below $1,550 to lock in annual contracts.