The United States has imposed anti-dumping duties on Russian palladium imports, adding a new layer of supply constraint to an already tight market. Russia supplies approximately 40% of global mined palladium output, primarily through Norilsk Nickel's operations in Siberia. The duties represent the latest escalation in Western sanctions targeting Russian metal exports.
The impact on pricing has been significant. Palladium has rallied approximately 90% from its 2025 lows near $1,300/oz to current levels around $2,500/oz. The rally reflects both the supply disruption narrative and the broader PGMs complex tightening. However, the sustainability of the rally depends on whether physical consumers accept the higher prices or switch further toward platinum substitution.
The duties also create a bifurcated market. Russian palladium that would normally flow to US industrial consumers must find alternative destinations, while US buyers scramble to secure non-Russian supply. South Africa is the primary alternative source, but its production is constrained by shaft rationalizations, electricity shortages (load-shedding), and aging mine infrastructure. The supply re-routing creates logistical costs and delivery delays that add to physical premiums.