US Moves to Block Russian Palladium With 132% Anti-Dumping Duty

The United States has moved closer to imposing prohibitive tariffs on imports of Russian palladium after the Department of Commerce made a final determination on a countervailing duty of 109.1% in May 2026, following an April 2026 final ruling setting an anti-dumping duty of 132.83%. Together, these duties would effectively price Russian palladium out of the US market for virtually all commercial applications — a move with profound implications for a metal where Russia supplies approximately 40% of global mined output, primarily through Nornickel's Siberian operations.

The duties will take effect if a parallel investigation conducted by the independent US International Trade Commission determines that the domestic industry has suffered harm. The ITC's injury ruling is scheduled for late May 2026, with an initial determination already having been submitted. These decisions support a petition by Johannesburg-based Sibanye-Stillwater, which last summer, together with the United Steelworkers union, asked Washington to consider imposing duties on imports of Russian palladium to ensure the long-term sustainability of US supply.

Nornickel, the world's largest palladium producer with approximately 40% market share, expects its palladium production to fall to 2.415–2.465 million ounces in 2026, from 2.725 million ounces in 2025 — which could mark the lowest level in 20 years. The company previously stated that the US anti-dumping investigation had increased market volatility but would not affect fundamental market conditions in the long term, arguing that "the global market is well able to rapidly reallocate material flows." However, at combined duty rates exceeding 240%, the economics of rerouting Russian palladium through intermediary hubs such as Armenia, Dubai, or Hong Kong becomes significantly more complex and costly.

Russian palladium imports into the US rose to 27.6 tonnes in 2024, from 23.8 tonnes in 2023 and 20.4 tonnes in 2022 — a steady increase suggesting that American consumers have been deepening their reliance on Russian material even as broader geopolitical tensions have escalated. Spot palladium prices have fallen approximately 16% since the start of 2026 to around $1,370 per ounce, reflecting the market's uncertainty around whether the tariffs will ultimately be enforced and how global trade routes will adjust.

The geographic concentration of palladium supply is the critical structural vulnerability underlying this story. Russia and South Africa together control roughly 75% of global primary palladium output. If US tariffs remove Russian palladium from the American market, several consequences follow. European and Asian buyers will compete more aggressively for non-Russian supply. Russian metal will need to find new homes in Asia, particularly China, where the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has created new channels for physical delivery. And critically, the price spread between palladium sold in the US versus rest-of-world markets could widen dramatically, creating exactly the kind of arbitrage opportunities that drive physical metal to the highest bidder.

North American palladium production is simultaneously contracting. Sibanye-Stillwater's Stillwater mine in Montana — the only primary palladium mine in the United States — is cutting output by up to 45%, and has been the driving force behind the tariff petition precisely because it cannot compete with Russian scale. Impala Canada's Lac des Iles mine in Ontario is scheduled to cease commercial production by mid-2026. This means that even if tariffs successfully exclude Russian metal, there is no domestic or nearby North American capacity to fill the gap in the short term.

Johnson Matthey's 2026 PGM Market Report projects that palladium will move into a small surplus of 214,000 ounces this year — but that forecast predated the full scope of the tariff determination and assumes smooth trade flow reallocation. If the ITC rules in favour of the domestic industry and the duties are imposed, the surplus projection could flip to deficit for the US market specifically, even if global balances remain in modest surplus. The divergence between US and international palladium prices would become the market's most important signal.