The risk of US tariffs on Russian palladium imports continues to create a sharp divergence between global surplus outlook and acute regional tightness risk. Russia accounts for ~40% of global mine supply, and any restrictions would primarily impact North American fabricators.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has seen rising palladium inventories as participants prepare for disruptions. North American supply is declining: Sibanye-Stillwater's Montana operation is scaling back, and Impala's Lac des Iles mine is expected to close by mid-2026.
The disconnect between global balance sheets and regional availability could widen significantly. US palladium buyers face dramatically different pricing if Russian imports were restricted, with premiums potentially spiking to levels seen after the 2022 Ukraine invasion.