Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) enters H2 2026 at approximately $4.80/pound, up 35% year-over-year, as Florida production hits 50-year lows from citrus greening disease. Florida's 2026/27 crop is forecast at just 22 million boxes, down from 100+ million boxes in the 1990s.
Brazil, producing 70% of global orange juice, is forecast at 230 million boxes, down 8% year-over-year due to alternating bearing cycles and drought stress. Brazilian FCOJ exports are the primary supply source for the global market.
USDA cold storage stocks sit at multi-decade lows, with only 6-8 weeks of consumption cover. The tight inventory structure creates acute price sensitivity to any supply disruption.
Demand destruction is evident in US per-capita consumption, which has fallen 40% from 2000 levels as consumers substitute with alternative beverages. However, the inelastic demand from foodservice and retail contracts provides a price floor.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $4.50-5.50/lb.
Orange juice buyers must secure H2 requirements at $4.50-5.00/lb through fixed contracts. The structural supply decline creates persistent upside risk. For retailers, consider private label positioning and promotional timing to manage consumer price sensitivity. Budget $4.50-6.00/lb for 2027 as Florida production continues declining.