Lean hogs enter H2 2026 at approximately $82/cwt, up 5% year-over-year, as US pork production grows 2% to 28 billion pounds. US pork exports are forecast at 6.5 billion pounds, up 3%, with Mexico, Japan, and South Korea the top destinations.
Chinese pork imports are recovering to 1.2 billion pounds as domestic production recovers from African swine fever. However, China's domestic herd has exceeded pre-ASF levels, limiting import growth potential.
Feed costs are moderate, with corn at $4.20/bu and soybean meal at $410/st, supporting producer margins. The pig-to-feed ratio sits at 5.5, above the 4.5 breakeven threshold.
Disease pressure (PRRS, PEDv) remains a production risk, with approximately 3-5% of annual production lost to disease annually. Biosecurity investments have reduced but not eliminated this risk.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $75-90/cwt.
Lean hog buyers should secure H2 requirements at $78-85/cwt through forward contracts. Moderate feed costs support production expansion. For packers, consider formula pricing during summer demand peaks. Budget $75-95/cwt for 2027.