US hot rolled coil is trading around $1,150-1,170 per short ton as of July 3, 2026, easing slightly from the late-June high of $1,194/st. Nucor held its Consumer Spot Price steady at $1,130/st for the week of June 29, signaling a pause after 22 consecutive weekly increases since late January. The steel giant cited strong underlying demand but noted it would "monitor import levels and domestic/global price trends" before the next move.
The Section 232 tariff structure is the dominant factor in US steel pricing. Since June 4, 2025, tariffs on steel were doubled from 25% to 50% for most origins. On April 2, 2026, proclamation 11021 restructured Section 232 so that duties apply to the full customs value of the imported article. Steel Market Update import-parity analyses show that with the 50% duty, landed German HRC is $180-200/st more expensive than domestic US hot band.
US sheet imports in January-September 2025 were down 38% year-over-year to 3.3 million tonnes, the key factor behind the Nucor-led rally. Domestic mills have maintained disciplined order books with 3-6 week lead times. The Nucor CSP trajectory tells the story: $950/st in January, $1,005-1,015 in March, $1,040 in April, $1,105 in June, and $1,130 by late June. Each weekly hike of $5-15/st was absorbed by the market.
In Europe, the CBAM entered its definitive phase on January 1, 2026. Importers of iron and steel must now purchase CBAM certificates priced in line with the EU ETS, roughly €70-100/t CO2. For Chinese HRC, the Commission's default CBAM value of 3.187 tCO2/t implies a carbon cost of ~€145/t, eliminating the traditional price advantage of Chinese steel into Europe. Fastmarkets reports that many foreign HRC offers into the EU are now quoted DDP with CBAM included around €600-620/t, broadly on par with domestic EU prices.
European domestic HRC is trading around €691/t ex-works Northwest Europe as of late May 2026. EUROMETAL describes 2026 as a "perfect storm" for EU steel: CBAM's full rollout, a new safeguard regulation (duty-free volumes halved to 18.3 million tonnes, out-of-quota duty doubled to 50%), and decarbonization measures are expected to massively reshape trade patterns.
The key question for H2 2026 is whether demand can sustain the $1,100+ level. Fastmarkets' "tariff mirage" analysis argues that underlying fundamentals (tepid demand, sufficient capacity) point to a gradual easing of HRC prices over the year, even if tariffs keep the US premium elevated. The futures curve supports this: Q3-Q4 2026 HRC futures cluster around $1,000/st, suggesting the market expects moderation.
Key price levels: support at $1,000/st (psychological threshold and futures deferred-month anchor), then $900-950/st (pre-rally floor and Section 232 policy floor). Resistance at $1,150-1,200/st (current spot band and late-June high). A breakout above $1,200 would require a supply event or further policy tightening. A break below $1,000 would signal a demand downturn not yet visible in the data.
For steel buyers, the current $1,100-1,150/st level is elevated by historical standards but supported by policy. The recommended strategy for H2 2026: lock in 50-60% of near-term requirements at current levels and leave the balance flexible given the futures curve points to $1,000-1,050 for Q4 delivery. The risk is two-sided: a Section 232 reduction would crash prices, while a new supply disruption could spike them. Given the political environment, the 50% tariff is likely structural through end-2027. For service centers: expect continued Nucor-led weekly pricing discipline. Build inventories during seasonal soft patches (August, December). EU buyers face CBAM costs that eliminate the import advantage — domestic European HRC is the price reference now, not Chinese FOB.