Spherical graphite for lithium-ion battery anodes enters H2 2026 at approximately $7,000/tonne, up 15% year-over-year, as EV anode demand grows 30% to 1.4 million tonnes. Global natural graphite production is forecast at 1.5 Mt, with synthetic graphite adding 0.8 Mt.
China refines 90% of global spherical graphite despite producing only 65% of natural flake graphite. This refining concentration creates supply chain vulnerability for non-Chinese battery manufacturers.
Synthetic graphite, derived from petroleum coke, commands a 20-30% premium over natural graphite but offers superior cycle life and consistency. The anode mix is approximately 70% synthetic, 30% natural, with natural graphite gaining share in cost-sensitive applications.
New projects in Mozambique (Syrah Resources), Tanzania, and Canada are developing non-Chinese supply chains, but commercial production is 2-3 years from significant volume.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $6,000-8,000/t for spherical graphite.
Graphite buyers should secure H2 requirements at $6,500-7,500/t through fixed contracts. EV demand growth creates structural upside. For battery manufacturers, consider long-term offtake agreements with non-Chinese producers for supply chain diversification. Budget $7,000-9,000/t for 2027.