Global gold supply reached an all-time high of 5,002 tonnes in 2025, but the growth rate is decelerating. Mine production hit 3,672t — a record — but year-over-year growth was negligible. The World Gold Council expects mine output to rise only modestly in 2026.
Recycling remains the supply-side weak point. Despite gold averaging well above $4,000 in 2025, recycling volumes only increased 3% to 1,404t. High prices should encourage scrap supply, but holders in key markets are holding onto inventory, expecting further price appreciation.
The supply constraint matters because demand continues to run ahead of production. Central banks alone absorbed 863t in 2025 — more than double the 2010-2021 average of 473t annually and equivalent to 23% of total mine output.
Russia, the world's second-largest producer, reported 480-485t of gold output in 2025 according to the Natural Resources Ministry. While large producers remain active, energy shortages and geopolitical disruptions in mining regions pose ongoing supply-side risks.
With supply growth flat and central bank demand structurally elevated, gold procurement requires forward planning. Spot purchases at support levels near $4,000-4,200 offer better risk-adjusted entry than waiting for dips below $4,000, which the supply-demand balance makes increasingly unlikely.