COMEX gold futures surged to $4,344.80 per troy ounce on June 15, marking a 3.08% single-day gain. The rally pushed gold back toward the upper end of its recent trading range after a pullback from January's record high of $5,589/oz. Gold remains 28% higher year-over-year, reflecting continued structural demand from central banks and investment buyers despite the correction from all-time highs.
The World Gold Council reported that central banks added 243 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, up 35% from 207 tonnes in Q4 2025. Goldman Sachs Research notes that net long speculative positioning on COMEX remains in the 73rd percentile since 2014, signaling persistently bullish sentiment among institutional investors.
The US Federal Reserve holds its first policy meeting this week under new chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are pricing a 60% probability of no rate cuts in 2026, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.34%. The ECB raised rates for the first time since 2023, while US producer prices rose 6.5% year-over-year in May, reinforcing higher-for-longer rate expectations.
Standard Chartered forecasts gold at $4,300/oz over the next three months and $4,500/oz over 12 months. Morgan Stanley has a 2026 average target of $4,400/oz, while Metals Focus predicts an average of $4,920/oz for the full year. The World Bank projects $4,700/oz for 2026 in its April Commodity Markets Outlook.
Gold at $4,300-4,400/oz is in the middle of the 2026 forecast range. The structural bid from central banks limits downside risk, but higher-for-longer rate expectations create headwinds. Consider staggered purchases layered around Fed meeting dates and use COMEX futures or options to hedge near-term exposure.