RBOB gasoline prices at four-year highs ahead of memorial day driving season

US drivers heading into the Memorial Day weekend are facing the highest gasoline prices in nearly four years, with the national average hitting $4.55 per gallon on May 22 — a 53% surge since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February. According to data from the Guardian, average prices stood at roughly $3.00/gal before the conflict erupted, meaning American motorists are now paying an additional $1.50 at every fill-up.

RBOB futures reflect high volatility. On the NYMEX, front-month July RBOB gasoline futures (RBN26) have been trading in the mid-$3.60 range, closing at $3.6424 on May 22 according to Investing.com. The market has been subject to violent headline-driven swings: on May 20, July RBOB plunged 5.35% (-$0.1911) after President Trump stated the US was in the "final stages" of peace negotiations with Iran, sending gasoline to a 1.5-week low. On April 17, a similar 3.2% drop occurred when Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" during a ceasefire — a declaration that failed to materialise into actual shipping恢复正常. (FACT: Barchart — RBOB futures data, May 20, 2026.)

Memorial Day under the shadow of Hormuz. The holiday weekend marks the traditional start of peak US summer driving season — the period of highest gasoline demand in North America. According to CNBC, AAA projects that domestic travel could approach pre-pandemic records, but the cost of fuel is creating a significant headwind. "Prices at the pump could hit $5 per gallon this summer if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen," analysts warned, with the market needing "verifiable, definitive steps taken to reopen Hormuz before the prospect of $5 gasoline is off the table." (FACT: CNBC — "Iran war leaves US gas prices at highest levels in nearly four years ahead of Memorial Day," May 22, 2026.)

The scale of the supply disruption. According to Wikipedia's entry on the 2026 Iran war fuel crisis, the International Energy Agency has characterised the Hormuz closure as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The Strait of Hormuz typically handles roughly 20% of the world's oil trade — approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products. Since Iran effectively sealed the waterway on March 2, the global market has been starved of supply from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, with an estimated 10.5 million barrels per day of crude production shut in during April alone. (FACT: Wikipedia — "2026 Iran war fuel crisis," accessed May 24, 2026.)

Diesel and jet fuel also under pressure. While gasoline prices have captured headlines, the crisis extends across the entire refined products spectrum. The Guardian reports that diesel and jet fuel remain at or near their highs, with jet fuel particularly tight in European markets that relied on now-mothballed Middle Eastern refineries. Diesel's role in global freight, agriculture, and industrial activity makes its elevation a secondary inflationary channel that could persist well beyond any resolution of the gasoline crisis. (FACT: The Guardian — "Even if the Iran war ended today, US fuel prices aren't likely to normalize this year," May 23, 2026.)

Demand side resilience. Despite the price shock, US gasoline demand has proven resilient thus far. The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending May 15 showed a gasoline inventory draw of 1.55 million barrels — indicating that consumption remains robust even at elevated price levels. Refineries are "running hard and using up a lot of oil" (FACT: Investing.com — The Energy Report, May 20, 2026), but global crude feedstock shortages are beginning to constrain output, particularly in Asia and Europe where Middle Eastern crude supplies have been cut off.