US crude oil production continues to defy expectations, holding at a record 13.5 million barrels per day in June. The Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico accounts for approximately 6.2 million bpd of that total, making it the single most productive oil basin in the world, generating more output than all but three OPEC member countries.
Productivity gains are the key story. The average Permian drilling rig now produces approximately 1,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 8% from June 2025. Longer lateral lengths — now averaging 12,000 feet versus 9,500 feet in 2020 — are the primary driver. Improved completion designs, including closer frac stage spacing and higher proppant loading, are contributing.
The drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) well inventory has risen to 4,582 wells, up 12% year-over-year. During the 2024-2025 price rally, operators aggressively completed DUCs to capture higher prices. In the current $70-75 environment, completion activity remains steady but DUC creation is outpacing completions. This provides a latent supply inventory that can be activated within 30-45 days if prices warrant.
Private operators in the Permian continue to outpace their public counterparts in activity growth. According to data from Enverus, private operators account for 38% of Permian rigs, up from 32% in 2024. Private operators are less constrained by shareholder return mandates and more willing to drill in the current price environment. Public operators, led by ExxonMobil and Chevron, are maintaining steady state activity.
Non-Permian production is more mixed. The Bakken in North Dakota is producing approximately 1.2 million bpd, flat year-over-year. The Eagle Ford in South Texas has declined slightly to 980,000 bpd. Production from the Gulf of Mexico is stable at 1.6 million bpd, with several deepwater projects coming online in late 2026.
The implications for global supply balances are significant. The US is now producing 1.2 million bpd more than in June 2025. At current levels, total US production on an annualized basis is over 4.9 billion barrels — roughly equivalent to the entire output of Saudi Arabia and Iraq combined. This supply growth is a structural headwind for OPEC+ market management.
US supply growth is the dominant structural story in oil markets. The DUC inventory alone can add 350,000-400,000 bpd of production within 30-45 days if prices move above $75. For buyers, this caps upside in a way that wasn't true in 2020-2022. Use the $68-$75 range as the tactical band for crude-linked procurement. If WTI breaks above $78, it likely requires a genuine supply disruption, not just sentiment.