DAP markets remain structurally tight as Chinese phosphate export restrictions enter their tenth month. US retail DAP averaged $910-912/short ton in mid-July — 13% higher year-on-year and showing no signs of seasonal softening. The market has been reshaped by Chinese policy more than any other single factor.
China extended its phosphate export controls through at least August 31, 2026, removing an estimated 7-9 million tonnes from global seaborne supply — roughly 30% of the market. Chewachem Fertilizer Blog reports that China's DAP export window is 'delayed until 31 Aug 2026 at the earliest,' effectively locking global buyers into a structurally undersupplied market.
India is bearing the cost. The Indian Potash Limited (IPL) tender concluded in May cleared 1.3465 Mt of DAP at $930-935/t CFR from 14 global suppliers. These levels are roughly 40% above pre-crisis norms and directly reflect the Chinese export gap. West coast deliveries cleared at $930/t, east coast at $935/t CFR. DiscoveryAlert notes that DAP prices have risen ~40% ahead of the kharif monsoon season.
The United States is relatively insulated by domestic phosphate production. Mosaic operates Florida phosphate rock mines and processing capacity that supplies most North American DAP demand. The NOLA barge market for DAP is assessed at $620-700/t — significantly below the retail level — suggesting healthy margins for domestic producers.
Brazil, the world's largest phosphate importer, is caught in the squeeze. Argus Brazil MAP CFR is the leading assessment west of Suez, and Brazilian buyers are now paying premiums for non-Chinese material. StoneX reported that Chinese MAP and DAP exports from January to September 2025 totaled only 3.7 Mt, 23% below 2024 levels, and the trend has accelerated in 2026.
Affordability is constraining demand. While buyers need DAP for spring and kharif application, the $900+/t retail price is pushing farmers toward partial substitution and reduced application rates in price-sensitive markets. DTN notes that affordability remains 'the dominant issue in phosphates.'
The global FOB benchmark — tracked by the World Bank at $658/t in March 2026 — has likely moved higher since. The World Bank's figure already showed DAP well above pre-2021 norms, and Chinese restrictions have only tightened the market further since then.
The bull case: China extends restrictions past August and global inventories deplete further. The bear case: China reopens exports in September, releasing pent-up supply into a market that has already paid premium prices for alternatives. The base case: firm through August, with a potential correction in Q4 if Chinese supply returns on schedule.
DAP buyers face the tightest procurement environment among major fertilizers. Chinese export restrictions through August 31 mean the market is structurally undersupplied for the kharif season peak. Priority actions: (1) Secure Q3 coverage now at $910-935/t CFR before tighter availability drives prices higher in August. (2) Consider partial substitution with MAP where agronomically feasible — the $100-150/t spread between DAP and MAP may favor MAP in some applications. (3) Evaluate forward contracts with non-Chinese suppliers (Mosaic, OCP, EuroChem) to lock in volume. (4) For North American buyers, domestic production provides more stable pricing than import-dependent markets — take advantage of NOLA barge levels at $620-700/t versus retail. The correction risk is real when China reopens exports — avoid extending coverage beyond Q4 2026 at current premiums.