London Metal Exchange copper settled at $13,603/mt on the cash contract, with three-month metal at $13,655/mt. The backwardated structure signals near-term physical tightness. The LME cash/three-month spread has widened in recent sessions as warrant cancellations accelerated.
On COMEX, copper futures climbed to $6.493/lb, up 0.97% from the previous close. The arbitrage between COMEX and LME continues to attract metal flows eastward. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper rose to 102,660 CNY/mt, a 1.56% gain, tracking the global upward momentum.
LME registered warehouse inventories fell to 364,100t, a decline of 3,200t. Cancelled warrants now account for roughly 18% of total registered tonnage, pointing to further outflows in the near term. The drawdown is concentrated in Asian warehouses, where copper is being absorbed by Chinese end-users.
The global refined copper market remains in structural deficit. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently estimated a production shortfall of roughly 180,000t for 2026, driven by smelter maintenance, lower ore grades at major mines, and delayed greenfield projects. Concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have fallen to single digits, reflecting tight mine supply.
Copper buyers should expect continued backwardation and volatile premiums. With LME stocks drawing and treatment charges at historic lows, spot availability remains constrained. Consider extending forward coverage to 8-12 weeks and monitor cancelled warrants as a leading indicator of further tightness. Delaying coverage in this backwardated market carries material price risk.