• Spot / futures levels (early June 2026) – Cocoa CFD around 3,760–3,800 USD/ton on 5 June 2026, down ~9% over the month and ~63% year‑on‑year from 2025 peaks. – Prices are >40–50% below the 2024–early‑2025 spike (highs near 12,600–13,000 USD/t) but still above the 2012‑2022 average (~2,500 USD/t) according to multiple market reviews. • Recent price path – 2024–early 2025: historic rally; futures briefly above 12,600–13,000 USD/t on severe West African supply shocks (El Niño, disease, aging trees, structural issues). – Late 2025–H1 2026: sharp correction (>70% from peak) as production prospect
• Spot / futures levels (early June 2026) – Cocoa CFD around 3,760–3,800 USD/ton on 5 June 2026, down ~9% over the month and ~63% year‑on‑year from 2025 peaks. – Prices are >40–50% below the 2024–early‑2025 spike (highs near 12,600–13,000 USD/t) but still above the 2012‑2022 average (~2,500 USD/t) according to multiple market reviews.
• Recent price path – 2024–early 2025: historic rally; futures briefly above 12,600–13,000 USD/t on severe West African supply shocks (El Niño, disease, aging trees, structural issues). – Late 2025–H1 2026: sharp correction (>70% from peak) as production prospects improved and inventories rebuilt; prices eased through Q4 2025 and into early 2026.
• Supply: 2024/25 and 2025/26 balance – ICCO February 2026 bulletin: 2024/25 global production 4.728 M t, grindings 4.606 M t → surplus ~75,000 t, after several years of large deficits and critically low stocks. – Surplus reflects an 8.4% y/y rebound in output and a 4.2% y/y fall in grindings amid very high prices. – StoneX (as cited in 2026 analysis): projects large surpluses going forward: • 2025/26: surplus ~247,000 t (revised from 287,000 t).
• 2026/27: surplus ~149,000 t (cut from 267,000 t due to El Niño risk). – West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire & Ghana) still dominates (>60% of supply). 2023/24 output was hit by drought, disease (black pod, CSSV), aging trees, and other structural constraints, but conditions into 2025/26 are described as improving (better rainfall, support programs, mid‑crop developmen
Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Cocoa given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.