Cobalt enters H2 2026 at approximately $32/kilogram, up 8% year-over-year, as Democratic Republic of Congo production grows 15% to 180,000 tonnes. The DRC accounts for 75% of global cobalt production, creating significant supply concentration risk.
Glencore's Mutanda mine restart and CMOC's TFM expansion are the primary growth drivers. However, artisanal mining regulations and ESG compliance requirements are gradually formalizing the sector, potentially removing 10-15% of informal supply.
EV battery demand is forecast at 95,000 tonnes in 2026, up 20% year-over-year. However, the shift toward LFP batteries (cobalt-free) and high-nickel NMC 811 (low-cobalt) is reducing cobalt intensity per kWh of battery capacity.
Recycling supply is growing at 15% annually, forecast at 12,000 tonnes in 2026, partially offsetting primary demand growth.
Price projections for H2 2026 cluster at $30-36/kg.
Cobalt buyers should secure H2 requirements at $30-34/kg through fixed contracts. The DRC supply concentration creates upside risk. For battery manufacturers, evaluate cobalt-free and low-cobalt cathode chemistries for long-term supply security. Budget $32-40/kg for 2027.