Zinc is approaching a technical decision zone. Trading Economics showed zinc at $3,406.65/t on February 11 after a strong monthly move, and Rzzro's current LME read is $3,486/mt. The next resistance band sits near $3,600/t.
The fundamental backdrop is mixed. LME stocks are tight, but China has a refined surplus and demand growth remains modest. ILZSG expects global refined zinc demand to rise about 1% in 2026, which is not enough to absorb a sharp supply shock without price support.
Morgan Stanley's 2026 average forecast of $2,900/t shows how much upside is already priced into the market. A break above $3,600/t would need either smelter cuts or a renewed inventory draw.
Use $3,600/mt as the level where incremental hedges need fresh evidence. Below $3,400/mt, add coverage; above $3,600/mt, require a confirmed LME stock draw.