Zinc is holding firm because the inventory signal is still tight outside China. Rzzro's LME zinc read is $3,486/mt, while SHFE zinc is 24,450 CNY/t, up 0.74%. LME stocks are around 110,000 tonnes, down from 230,500 tonnes at the start of 2025.
The concentrate market remains the pressure point. Fastmarkets reports deeply negative treatment charges, and Chinese smelters are relying on by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid to support margins. Higher zinc prices can bring mine supply forward, but that response is slow.
The market split is important. China has more refined zinc and higher domestic stocks, while the rest of the world faces leaner visible metal. Procurement teams buying outside China should not treat Chinese surplus data as proof of global availability.
Cover near-term zinc needs on LME dips below $3,400/mt. Monitor treatment charges weekly; if they stay negative, expect smelter cuts to support prices.