The zinc demand picture is bifurcating. Infrastructure-related galvanizing — steel coated with zinc to prevent corrosion — is growing at 4-5% annually, driven by a multi-year global infrastructure spending cycle. In the US, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) has allocated $110 billion for roads and bridges and $65 billion for grid upgrades through 2027. Galvanized steel is specified for bridge components, transmission towers, and guardrails. Each $1 billion in infrastructure steel translates to roughly 3,000-4,000 tons of incremental zinc demand.
In the EU, NextGenerationEU recovery funds are channeling €170 billion into green infrastructure through 2026. Solar mounting structures — heavily galvanized against outdoor exposure — are a growing zinc demand category. Europe installed 66 GW of solar PV in 2025, and 2026 is tracking toward 75 GW. At 3-4 kg of zinc per kW of galvanized mounting steel, that's 225,000-300,000 tons of zinc demand just from European solar structures.
China's grid investment program at $105 billion in 2026 adds another layer. UHV transmission towers use heavily galvanized structural steel: a single 500kV tower contains 20-30 tons of galvanized steel, with zinc coating thickness of 600-1,000 g/m². The zinc intensity of infrastructure galvanizing is 6-14x that of auto body galvanizing, so the demand shift matters for total zinc consumption.
Automotive galvanizing, by contrast, is treading water. Global light vehicle production in 2026 is tracking at roughly 91 million units, effectively flat versus 2025. The shift to EVs changes the zinc consumption profile: battery trays and structural battery enclosures use more galvanized advanced high-strength steel than internal combustion bodies, but EV production growth isn't accelerating fast enough to offset the plateau in total vehicle output. The net effect: auto sector zinc demand growth of 0-1% annually.
The International Zinc Association (IZA) estimates total zinc demand from galvanizing at 7.8 million tons in 2026, or roughly 55% of global refined zinc consumption. The infrastructure-to-auto ratio has shifted from 40:60 in 2020 to roughly 45:55 in 2026. Because infrastructure galvanizing is more zinc-intensive (thicker coatings, larger components), this ratio shift means zinc demand per ton of galvanized steel is rising even as the steel tonnage grows more slowly.
Infrastructure galvanizing uses 6-14x more zinc per ton of steel than automotive. As the demand mix shifts toward infrastructure, zinc intensity per dollar of construction spending is rising. This matters for buyers: even if the economic headlines are mixed, zinc demand is growing because the fastest-growing end uses are the most zinc-intensive. Budget for zinc premiums to stay elevated through the infrastructure cycle, which runs at least through 2027 in the US and EU. The auto sector flatlining is noise; infrastructure is the signal.