Zinc's market picture is split by region. StoneX and INTL FCStone describe China as having plentiful refined zinc, with SHFE stocks above the five-year average and refined output up 3.9% year to date. That surplus has supported Chinese exports.
Outside China, the story is tighter. LME stocks have fallen sharply from 2025 levels, and treatment charges remain under pressure. Fastmarkets says rebalancing the concentrate market would require smelter production cuts, but those cuts would worsen refined zinc tightness in the rest of the world.
For buyers, the risk is false comfort. A China surplus can pressure Asian prices while European and North American buyers still face premium risk. Procurement should match coverage to delivery region, not global averages.
Separate China-origin and ex-China zinc quotes in supplier reviews. If your supply chain relies on LME-priced metal, do not let SHFE surplus data delay coverage.