WTI's near-term range is clear. The market is trading inside the $85-$90/bbl band, with inventory data supporting the lower side and geopolitical risk supporting the upper side.
The latest EIA report showed crude stocks at 426.5 million barrels, below the five-year average. That supports price, but it does not remove macro pressure.
OPEC+ quota increases and firmer U.S. rates cap rallies. A clean break above $90 would require either stronger draws or a fresh escalation headline.
For procurement, the band gives a rule. Hedge more aggressively near the lower end of the range and preserve flexibility near the upper end unless physical flows tighten further.
Use the $85-$90/bbl band for tranche decisions. Increase hedge coverage on dips, but avoid overcommitting above the range without a physical supply signal.