WTI’s technical picture has turned bearish following the sharp sell-off. The price broke below both the 50-day moving average at $73.50 and the psychologically important $70 level in Friday’s session. The 100-day MA at $71.50 was also breached decisively.
The 14-day RSI at 38 is approaching oversold territory (30), suggesting that a short-term bounce is possible. However, in a bearish macro environment, the RSI can remain oversold for extended periods. The MACD indicator has turned negative with the signal line crossing below the MACD line.
The $68 level represents the line in the sand for WTI. This level acted as support in late May and has held for three consecutive tests. A close below $68 on high volume would signal a breakdown toward the $65-66 range, the February 2026 lows.
On the upside, resistance is now at $70 (the previous psychological support turned resistance), followed by the 50-day MA at $73.50. A move back above $73.50 would neutralize the current bearish outlook.
WTI’s technical breakdown below $70 suggests further downside risk in the near term. Buyers should adopt a phased hedging strategy: cover 50% of Q4 requirements at $68-70, waiting for the OPEC+ meeting on July 3 before covering the remainder. The $65-66 level represents a strong support zone for aggressive buying.