OPEC+ overproduction in May reached 320,000 barrels per day above agreed quota levels, according to secondary source data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The overproduction builds on a persistent compliance gap that has plagued the group since the current set of voluntary cuts was extended in March.
Iraq was the largest overproducer at 180,000 bpd above its quota of 4.0 million bpd, followed by Kazakhstan at 90,000 bpd above its quota. The United Arab Emirates, which negotiated a higher baseline in the 2024 agreement, was within its adjusted quota. Saudi Arabia continued to voluntarily produce below its quota.
The overproduction has contributed to softer WTI prices by adding physical barrels to a market already absorbing the unwind of geopolitical risk premia. The total overproduction of 320,000 bpd represents roughly 0.3% of global supply — modest in absolute terms but significant as a sentiment signal.
The issue will be the central topic at the July 7-8 OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Analysts from ING and JP Morgan expect the group to issue a public statement urging compliance but are skeptical that enforcement mechanisms exist. The group's track record on compliance is weak — Iraq has overproduced in 11 of the last 15 months.
The OPEC+ compliance problem is a structural bearish factor for crude that will likely persist. For procurement teams, this means WTI rallies above $78 are probably sellable events. The July meeting is unlikely to produce meaningful enforcement, so assume 300,000-400,000 bpd of overproduction continues through H2 2026. Plan your fuel budget with this excess supply as a standing assumption.