WTI crude oil futures traded at $90.90 per barrel on June 9, maintaining a tight range near the $90–$95 resistance zone. The small gain reflected ongoing OPEC+ production discipline and a draw in US crude inventories according to the latest EIA weekly report, which showed commercial crude stocks falling by 2.8 million barrels.
OPEC+ has maintained its cautious approach to supply management throughout early 2026, with the coalition extending voluntary production cuts into Q2 despite internal pressure from members seeking higher output. The group’s next ministerial meeting is expected in late June and will set the production path for H2 2026, with several analysts expecting a gradual unwinding of cuts.
The demand picture presents a split outlook. OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report projects global demand growth of 1.4 million b/d in 2026 to reach 106 million b/d. By contrast, the IEA sees demand growth of only 860,000 b/d, reflecting slower economic growth and accelerating energy efficiency. The gap between the two forecasts highlights the uncertainty in the near-term outlook.
Rising non-OPEC supply, particularly from US shale and deepwater projects, is adding to the potential oversupply risk. The EIA projects US crude output averaging 13.7 million b/d in 2026, up from 13.2 million b/d in 2025. If OPEC+ begins unwinding cuts in H2, the market could shift from balanced to surplus, with consensus forecasts seeing WTI easing toward $75–$85/bbl by year-end.
WTI buyers face a bifurcated outlook: near-term support from OPEC+ discipline, but significant downside risk from H2 supply increases. Consider layering in hedges for H2 2026 at current $90 levels, particularly if OPEC+ signals unwinding. The contango structure suggests the market expects lower prices ahead—use this to lock in lower calendar spreads.