The latest EIA weekly petroleum status report confirmed that US crude inventories have fallen for the tenth consecutive week, driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced imports. Stockpiles are now at their lowest level in over 40 years — a data point that would normally provide strong support for crude prices.
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimates that global inventories are falling by an average of 6.3 million barrels per day in Q2 2026. The agency forecasts the Brent crude spot price will average around $105/bbl in June and July, well above current WTI levels.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been heavily drawn down during the crisis. Low OECD inventories and a depleted SPR create a bullish structural underpinning even as flat prices retreat on deal optimism.
Analysts from OilPrice.com note that traders have shifted from pricing a worst-case disruption to pricing a recovery that has not yet happened. Inventory data suggests markets are getting ahead of physical fundamentals. Major state-owned refiners in China and India have struggled to secure supertankers from the Persian Gulf as tanker rates remain elevated.
The inventory data is screaming physical tightness that flat prices are not reflecting. If the US-Iran deal faces implementation delays — and history suggests it will — crude could rebound sharply. Buyers should treat the current dip as a hedge opportunity. The EIA's $105/bbl Brent forecast for June-July is significantly above current WTI levels, suggesting a potential 25-30% upside from here.