WTI crude oil settled at $76.54/bbl on NYMEX, essentially flat on the session, as the market digests mixed signals on OPEC+ quota compliance ahead of the group's July 2 monitoring meeting. The Brent-WTI spread widened to $4.05/bbl, reflecting tighter Atlantic Basin supply relative to US Gulf Coast availability.
OPEC+ compliance slipped to 82% in May, according to Platts estimates, down from 86% in April. Iraq overproduced by 220,000 bbl/d above its quota for the third consecutive month, while Kazakhstan exceeded its allocation by 150,000 bbl/d. The UAE maintained near-perfect compliance at 98%.
The group's next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on July 2 will review compliance data and assess whether to adjust the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bbl/d scheduled to begin unwinding in Q4 2026. Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz has signaled a preference for maintaining cuts if compliance does not improve.
US crude production held at a record 13.5 million bbl/d in June, according to EIA weekly estimates, driven by Permian Basin efficiency gains and the ramp-up of ExxonMobil's Payara field offshore Guyana. US Gulf of Mexico production remains steady at 1.8 million bbl/d.
Refinery crude runs averaged 17.2 million bbl/d in the week ending June 13, up 0.5% week-over-week as summer driving season demand lifts utilization rates to 94.5% of capacity. Gasoline inventories edged lower by 0.8 million bbl to 227 million bbl, just below the five-year seasonal average.
Monitor the July 2 JMMC meeting for quota adjustments. If compliance remains below 85%, expect Saudi-led pressure that could signal a production cut extension into H1 2027, supporting WTI above $75/bbl. Use $73-75/bbl as a tactical buying range.