NYMEX WTI crude futures collapsed 4.26% to settle at $73.34/bbl on June 23, the lowest close since February 18. The selloff accelerated after the S&P Global US flash manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.2 in June, the second consecutive month below the 50 expansion threshold.
European data reinforced the bearish outlook. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 47.5, with Germany at 46.8. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI, released earlier in the week, slipped to 50.2, barely in expansion territory. The synchronized manufacturing slowdown raises concerns about global oil demand growth.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth of 1.1 mb/d in 2026, down from 1.5 mb/d in 2025. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected industrial activity in OECD economies and China's slower economic recovery post-stimulus.
Technical selling accelerated once WTI broke below $75/bbl, the 50-day moving average. The next support level is $72/bbl (February low), followed by $70/bbl (psychological round number). The 14-day RSI dropped to 32, approaching oversold territory.
The PMI data is a real demand signal, not noise. Reduce spot exposure and extend the forward curve. WTI at $73 offers value versus $80+ levels in May. Layer coverage in Q4 2026 contracts at $72–74. If WTI falls to $70, consider buying 3 months of fixed-price supply.